次世代の脅威：世界大戦、UBI、テクノロジー経済

My entire life has been spent living through ‘unprecedented’ times. Instability and threat of an apocalypse are as familiar to me as the back of my hand, as my generation has seen economic pitfalls, COVID, global war after war, insane new technologies, and more. And that’s fitting because my personal life has been an apocalypse from the start. But as I piece together my own life, healing, the world is accelerating into chaos.The next 20 years, I suspect, will be some of the most eventful in human history. Every day, or at least every week, something significant happens. Be it new technological development, scientific advancements, government changes, global affairs, etc. Life is moving at light speed now, increased even from just a year ago. This is all thanks to the compounding, exponential effects technology has on every aspect of human society. My generation should be called Generation Limitless because we’ve managed to create technology that’s skyrocketing human capability beyond all prior limits, which is also breaking down and reorganizing every aspect of human life.We are living through the most chaotic, exciting, adventurous time in human history. Possibly the worst time to be alive, or possibly the best, depending on how it all turns out over the next decade.However, sifting through all the rage bait, polarization, politics, and bias is a very heavy task. There’s so much noise, so much confusion, nobody seems to even understand what the problems are we’re facing. I’m not talking about the small stuff- like voter issues, civil rights, or who’s gonna be president. No. To get perspective, you have to zoom out and analyze the world on a bigger scale, identifying patterns. The average person is unaware of the magnetic forces of human nature sculpting their future, nor aware of global trends in geopolitics and politics.There are several factors I worry about when assessing the future, of which I’ll discuss some likely outcomes. I am an actual realist, not an undercover pessimist. I see a lot of possibilities for both good and bad in the near future, depending on how it all works out. After all, the only constant in this world is the immutable law that all things change.Here’s what you need to know.The first to be discussed is the concern of rising authoritarianism and populism. Populism is a political approach that pits the people against a common enemy, be it a corrupt elite, foreign adversaries, immigrants, the other political party, whatever. In doing so, they advocate for policies that prioritize the common person’s interests over those of their “enemies.” By populist authoritarianism, I’m referencing political movements towards giving governments more power and control.Generally, there’s been a global trend towards populist authoritarianism, which has yet to be fully realized. Some years it declines, other years it rises, but it’s generally been on the rise since the 90s.12 This is happening independent of political party or ideology– all are moving in the same direction, just with different methods.Even cultural movements show a deep sway towards the authoritarian right, as a knee jerk reaction from the previous sway towards the authoritarian left. Once the world is destabilized and impoverished by AGI, these populists will gather significant backing, rise to power, and unleash war. Politicians will want to boost the economy and maintain power by blaming problems on other countries. Not to mention, we are merging from a unipolar world to a multipolar world. Meaning, merging from a singular dominant power (USA) to multiple countries having equal power. In doing so, there is no longer a leader; countries grapple for power, and violence ensues. It’s the same thing that happened each time the CIA killed a cartel leader– they created a power vacuum which led to fractured groups and widespread warfare.This entire global shift towards more hawkish “right wing” populist politics, accompanied by deglobalization, is pretty much how the Second World War started. It’s obviously more complex than that, but the general movement is very similar. You have all of Europe talking about raising defense budgets, pulling out of treaties, backing proxy countries… we are sleepwalking right into this.This is all while a new technology is being developed for global superiority (last time it was nuclear, this time it’s artificial intelligence). As always, it’s a race for technological dominance. Funding is the same story as last time– funded by bankers and influenced by political lobbyists of the biggest companies. California is America’s Weimar Republic, representing transgender Marxist ideologies in modern day.Parallels between the world wars and the current day are easy to make; all the half brained dim wits talk about Nazi’s and populism. But many fewer can accurately conceptualize the political dynamics that lead to populism and authoritarianism. No, it isn’t “right wingers” or “lib tards.” In my opinion, you’re retarded no matter what because you still picked sides of a false dichotomy. What you have to understand is that populism is a cycle.Populism is a natural response to the inevitable decline of liberal democratic societies. As the saying goes, “In order to sell a lie, you have to tell some truth.”3 There usually are some problems with the corrupt elite, foreign adversaries, immigrants, the other political party, etc. But rarely is it the sole cause of all problems within a country. For example, immigration partially explains issues with demographics, some violence statistics, and some job loss– but it doesn’t explain all related issues like inflation, job replacement via automation, cities that have always had high crime rates regardless, corporatism, etc. Individual problems are made to be scapegoats to attract the average lukewarm IQ voter. Simply put, it points the finger. Instead of immigrants, left wing populists may blame wage stagnation, strained public services, and housing shortages. Again, all are problems, but they don’t paint the full story.As people suffer more and more, they increasingly look for a hero to solve their problems. Populist fascism rises when democratic liberalism inevitably fails. They choose the political hero archetype, strong and willing to fight for them. And that’s why populism is currently growing, and there are increases in antisemitism, racism, anti-immigration, etc. It’s because people are looking for the cause of their problem, and so they find the easiest ones to point out. It’s not that these aren’t problems in some shape, but they aren’t the sole problem, or even the root problem.One might argue, “Well, they aren’t fixing all problems, but at least they’re fixing some problems, right?” Yes, they are treating some problems, but they are treating symptoms of bigger systemic issues stemming from democracy itself. Some notable symptoms include:Democracy devolves into demagoguery, tribalism, and performative manipulation as politicians cater to the ignorant majority via inflammatory rhetoric and media control, amplified by competitive incentives, akin to LLMs in “Moloch’s Bargain.” When LLM’s compete for competitive success—such as increased sales, votes, or social media engagement— it leads to a significant rise in misaligned behaviors like deception, disinformation, and harmful rhetoric, even when models are explicitly instructed to remain truthful.This fosters paralysis through partisan gridlock, new administrations spend their time reversing prior policies, and institutional capture via lobbyists rules every politician.Education fails to prevent rot; voters rely on biased media and ‘experts,’ they don’t have time to understand the intricate nuances of complex government topics like economics. Culture wars divide citizens, and career politicians create problems to keep their relevance.Government branches never actually solve problems (Congress) because they are too busy grappling for power and manipulating the system by pulling fire alarms during meetings and holding votes in the middle of the night. (Stuff like this.)So problems stack up overtime, as the country gets more and more inefficient and corrupt. Let’s take one example: You have a housing crisis; everything is unaffordable. Why? Other major cities have abundant, cheap housing in comparison, like Moscow, Mexico City, Kraków, or Kuala Lumpur, which all have relatively good local economies with high populations.The problem is intricate:Excessive building codes and regulations, which are lobbied for by investors and construction companies to maintain property value and squash competition.High construction costs due to these building codes, and not using masonry block like every single other country in the world.Currency inflation.Over financialization (To be discussed in Part 3).Immigration & hedge funds driving up prices via demand.Wage stagnation due to corporatism and crony capitalism.Wage stagnation and decreased jobs due to robotic/AI automation and immigration.High interest rates.Rising ancillary costs like property taxes and insurance.Trade and regulatory policies impacting the building materials used.Existing cheaper housing is in high crime areas, which is another intricate problem.Pointing at just one of these variables doesn’t solve the problem. It does, however, give politicians a platform to run on. Like Trump running on immigration and proposing a 50-year mortgage term.The murderous soviets did one thing right– they massively built housing and haven’t had a problem with it since. (Known as Com Bloc apartments). America could replicate this on an extremely small budget fraction (e.g., 1-5% of its $6.8 trillion annual federal outlays) by launching a federal program redirecting funds from waste: invest ~$50-100 billion (0.7-1.5% of budget) to build 500,000+ units yearly—factories in Rust Belt states mass producing panels from cheap domestic cement/brick, unionized crews assembling on public land in high need urban/suburban microdistricts (like Soviet models with integrated basics), bypassing luxury codes for basic seismic/energy-compliant variants, housing 1-2 million people annually while creating 500,000 construction jobs, all feasible under streamlined NEPA/FHA rules.It’s not a question of money; America spent $4.55 trillion in aid for COVID, and over $100 billion was lost to theft/fraud (e.g., fake claims, overbilling). Upkeep for the 77,000 unused government structures, totaling $8.5 billion/decade—could fund 40,000 apartments yearly. They spent roughly $28 million on camouflage uniforms for Afghanistan that didn’t even match the environment of Afghanistan. The list goes on and on. The housing crisis isn’t a real problem, it’s manufactured. Imagine what happens to investor money when demand goes way down.Democracies fundamentally don’t solve the problems they face. They are a better option than autocracy, but they still lack competency. Eventually, like every democracy in history, they collapse under the weight of their own bureaucracy and unfixed problems. I’ll write a different book or essay on the solution to democracy/autocracy, here isn’t the place for it.Keeping relevance to this essay, the consequences of democracy are to transition into populist-fascism to fix the problems it created, which later transitions into authoritarianism. I’m coining this the DP of Democracy. (Double Penetration.) Democracy is willing, in this exchange. It’s consensual and desired, despite the appearance.Many populist fascists, while they may have good intentions, inevitably consolidate power. To kill corruption and restructure a dying system requires a power greater than the system itself. They literally have to be authoritarian and fascist to solve any problems, but thereby they create new problems. As Napoleon Bonaparte said, ”He who saves his nation does not violate any law.” Especially when clearing corrupted courts.This is the exact justification used by many current populists- and they’re not wrong. Again, partial truths. But they aren’t solving a problem; they’re exchanging it for another, too blinded by cognitive distortions to realize that they are the new problem. The promise of power and money is too bright.This power consolidation leads to authoritarian rule once the stage is set and a sociopath has all the legislative tools he needs, created by previous leaders. The last two American presidents, Trump and Biden, both further consolidated power and rose on semi fascist political platforms. El Salvador’s president just ruled for indefinite reelection after concentrating power to clean up the massive crime problem. The cycle continues- democratic liberalism fails, populism rises, autocracy gains control again, and meanwhile, oligarchs rule no matter what phase of the system.And again– not everything they do is bad. Some populists solve urgent problems that need to be solved. It’s not that the liberalism, oligarchy, and corptocracy are something that needs to be saved and protected. No- that’s what pushed people into this mess to begin with. But there is typically always a cost.Eventually, there’s a platform that seizes enough control to force politicians out of office. The catch is that these politicians need to be forced from office. Prior politicians have damaged the country, and they are usually corrupt. The issue is, once a party has that sort of power, it inevitably ends up being abused, and worse, corruption soon follows.This isn’t just my opinion. Scientists have studied populism and found that it’s usually a threat to democracy, decreases GDP, and increases instability.4 5They tend not to leave office and restructure government into an autocracy. And this effect is had with both rightwing and leftwing populism.Blaming the populists without considering what contributed to their rise is a critical flaw. You can’t blame populists for catering to the demands of the people. Allowing mob rule via democracy is the core problem leading to populism, which has solutions.On the other side, current politicians do everything they can to maintain power and try to flip the narrative. We saw this in the United States and Argentina with Peronists. They claim the blamed problems aren’t the true cause (partially true) and use the same tactics as populists: appeal to emotion and cognitive distortions. “Keep everything the same! In fact, accelerate previous policies!” They scream from podiums. Polarization continues, another natural consequence of democracy, as politicians weaponize culture to dig in their heels.So in the present moment, as fascism rises, the offenders always feel justified, and always are justified to some extent. They’re a response to very real problems, not simply a thirst for power (as the Western liberalists would like you to believe). The power struggle just continues to pull more and more in each direction, creating a natural need for violence, intimidation, and subversion in order to gain political power.Thus, it is cyclical. This is what we can expect more of in the next few decades. However, political cycles only partially explain the next 20 years. In Part 2, I’ll be discussing more important, revolutionary factors that humanity has not yet experienced.

※ 著作権に配慮し、引用は冒頭3段落までです。続きは元記事をご覧ください。