Near term · 2026–2035+
Humans reach Mars & start settlement
Uncrewed → crewed → early outpost
Starship uncrewed landing demos, orbital refueling, then crewed missions and early stays. JA deep-dive lives at /mars/.
Odds (editorial): Medium (45%)
What Musk / companies have said
Uncrewed ships in a transfer window (e.g. around 2026) have been pitched repeatedly; Musk has cited ~50% odds at times. Crewed follows success; city-scale is much later. Dates often slip.
Our probability read
Uncrewed landing this century: medium–high. Crewed in the 2030s: medium, stack-dependent (refuel, reliability, life support). Self-sufficient city: multi-decade, lower odds. Watch flights and refueling demos, not slide years.
What we track
Flight tests, orbital refuel, landing reliability, ISRU, crewed plan updates.
Probabilities and eras are editorial estimates from public info—not guarantees. Musk’s statements and our assessments are labeled separately.