In progress · 2024–2030s
Energy × AI compute scale-up
Stack power and GPU clusters
Secure power (solar, batteries, other) and grow Colossus-class training clusters. We track million-GPU-class systems + GW power—not a literal “1 million data centers.”
Odds (editorial): High (70%)
What Musk / companies have said
xAI’s Colossus scaled ~100k→200k GPUs quickly, with a public path toward 1M GPUs. Megapacks buffer power. Orbital data centers have been mentioned; unproven.
Our probability read
Continued terrestrial mega-clusters: high probability. A solar-only fleet of “1M data centers” is not a stated Musk plan and is implausible. Our bar: million-GPU class + power delivery. No public roadmap keys planning to the solar cycle alone.
What we track
GPU counts, MW/GW draw, power mix, model releases, siting/permits.
Probabilities and eras are editorial estimates from public info—not guarantees. Musk’s statements and our assessments are labeled separately.